Shell has set out two future energy scenarios, Sky 2050 and Archipelagos, where emissions are reduced quickly or gradually.
Sky 2050 brings society rapidly to Net Zero emissions, but doing so requires major interventions from policymakers in the energy system. This includes action such as the forced retirement of fossil-fuel assets, punitive carbon prices, the rapid introduction and scaling up of early-stage technologies and significant energy conservation through efficiency and even economic austerity.
Archipelagos sees higher fossil-fuel demand compared with Sky 2050, and meeting this demand requires investment. Net Zero comes late, and the process of getting there is painful, with society split and some investments ultimately failing.
Hydrogen becomes an important part of the energy system during the 2030s. It makes up 12% of final energy use in 2070 in Sky 2050, and only around 4% in Archipelagos.
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