Green hydrogen scale-up: giga projects and mega challenges

A recent report suggested that up to 38 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa) of clean hydrogen is expected to come into production by 2030, including 25Mtpa of green hydrogen. This is a dramatic increase in where we are early on in 2024, with less than 1Mtpa of clean hydrogen production in operation.

It is anticipated that this target may increase as a result of recent subsidies including a $7bn stimulus package for regional clean hydrogen hubs announced by the US Department of Energy (DOE) in October 2023. Similar financial support, including EU green hydrogen auctions and the UK’s Contracts for Difference (CfDs) tenders, may contribute to an increased target, with other countries including India, China, Australia, Japan and South Korea announcing tax incentives for green hydrogen production.

These global incentives intend to make large-scale green hydrogen projects bankable. In May 2023 NEOM took Final Investment Decision (FID) on its 2.2GW $8.4bn green hydrogen and ammonia project in Saudi Arabia with commercial operations expected in 2026. With gigascale green hydrogen production slowly becoming a reality, and with the promise of increasing levels of fiscal support, will we see an uptick in FIDs in 2024?

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